How to Participate in Numerai? Modeling, Staking, and OKX Funding

OKX

16 October 2026

The core participation flow of Numerai is: download data, train a model, submit predictions, and stake NMR. Staking is optional. You can compete and get scored without staking, but only staked predictions enter the Meta Model used by the hedge fund.

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Modeling and Submission

Numerai provides a free, high-quality, obfuscated financial dataset. Each row corresponds to features of a stock at a certain point in time, and the target variable is the stock's market performance over the next 20 days. The data is grouped by "era," and each era represents one week. IDs cannot be matched across different eras, which is part of the obfuscation design.

You can train models using any language or framework. The official documentation provides sample code for LightGBM and XGBoost. The core steps are to extract the feature columns from the training data and use the target as the label to train a regression model. New live data is released every Tuesday to Saturday. You need to use your trained model to generate predictions on the live data and then upload them via the Python API.

The submission deadline is every Monday at 14:30 UTC. If you miss the deadline, that round's submission will not be scored.

Staking: Payouts and Burns Depend on Model Performance

Staking means locking your NMR on your model and authorizing Numerai to pay out or burn your stake based on performance after scoring. Un-staked submissions are still scored, so you can build a track record for free, but only staked submissions receive weight in the Meta Model.

The maximum payout or loss for a single round is ±5% of the staked amount. The formula is stake * clip(payout_factor * score, -0.05, 0.05). The payout_factor decreases as the total network stake increases. This is a dynamic value, meaning that the larger the total stake, the lower the payout ratio per unit staked.

If you want to withdraw your NMR after staking, you need to wait 1 month for the release. During the pending release period, the unstaked portion may still be burned, but it will not participate in future payouts.

Getting NMR via OKX

NMR is an ERC-20 token deployed on Ethereum. OKX lists NMR spot trading. You can buy it with USDT or USDC trading pairs. After buying, withdraw from OKX to your Ethereum wallet (such as MetaMask), and then deposit it into your Numerai wallet for staking.

OKX withdrawals require identity verification. When withdrawing, be sure to select the ERC-20 network. OKX provides clear prompts for withdrawal addresses and network selection. Choosing the wrong network may result in unrecoverable assets. In addition, changing security settings or making a first withdrawal to a new address may trigger a 24-hour restriction, so plan your time in advance.

It is important to note that NMR price fluctuations directly affect your staking cost. The price at which you buy NMR and the price changes during the staking period are another risk variable besides model performance.

An Easily Overlooked Rule

You cannot stake on someone else's model. Numerai's staking mechanism requires you to stake NMR on your own submission. This is the core design of "skin in the game." The community has an independent marketplace called NumerBay where predictions can be bought and sold, but Numerai does not endorse this. You still need to submit and stake under your own name.