Bitcoin in October 2026: What to Watch? Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, and FOMC Dates

Market Trends

03 October 2026

For Bitcoin in October 2026, the macro calendar has been thrown into chaos by a government shutdown. The September nonfarm payrolls report originally scheduled for October 2 most likely cannot be released on time, and the mid-October CPI is also up in the air. The only fixed point is the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, but the Federal Reserve may have to make a rate decision without key data. Below is a clear breakdown of the confirmed dates, the releases that may fail to appear, and why each event matters.

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October 2: September Nonfarm Payrolls, Likely a No-Show

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) originally planned to release the September nonfarm payrolls report on October 2, one of the most important employment data points before the Fed's October meeting. But the federal government began a partial shutdown on October 1, and the Labor Department's previously published contingency plan shows that the BLS will fully suspend operations during the shutdown. Its website will not be updated, and scheduled releases will be delayed or canceled.

Several institutions warned about the risk of this report being missed before the shutdown began. A Japanese research institute's report clearly stated that some federal agencies closed starting October 1, and major economic statistics releases from the Commerce Department and Labor Department had stopped. The White House press secretary also said after the shutdown began that the October nonfarm payrolls and CPI reports "likely cannot be released on schedule," and some surveys may even be impossible to complete retroactively.

If you go to the BLS website on October 2 to check the nonfarm payrolls data, you will see an unupdated page rather than the data. That is the most direct way to judge the current situation.

October 15: September CPI, the Date Itself Is Already Uncertain

Under a normal schedule, September CPI should be released in mid-October. Some plans showed that the BLS had intended to release the data on October 15, but the shutdown has made that date unreliable.

It is important to distinguish one thing: during the shutdown, the BLS recalled some employees to work on the September CPI. The goal was to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security before the legal deadline. That report may be delayed to around October 24, but this does not mean all October economic data will follow suit and resume. The October CPI, which reflects price data for October, faces an even greater risk of missing data because surveyors cannot collect prices in the field.

For traders, if the September CPI is indeed released before the end of the month, it will still be the only inflation reading that may arrive before the FOMC meeting. If even that report is absent, the October FOMC will have to make a decision without any new inflation data.

October 27-28: FOMC Meeting, Date Confirmed but Decision-Making Gets Harder

The Fed's October policy meeting is set for October 27-28, and it is the only macro event in October with a fully confirmed date. The September meeting already raised rates by 25 basis points, and several officials at that time signaled they could "wait patiently and observe."

The problem is that the official data available to the Fed before the meeting may be extremely limited. Nonfarm payrolls will most likely be missing, CPI is uncertain, and the Fed's "data-dependent" approach to judging inflation and employment has been cut off. One research institute put it bluntly: the Fed will be forced to make judgments without data.

After the late-September PCE release, CME FedWatch showed the market pricing about a 62% probability of holding rates steady in October and about a 37% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. This pricing will still fluctuate before the October FOMC based on any scattered data releases, but if key data remains missing, the basis for market pricing will also become very thin.

Why PCE Is Not on the Core October Watchlist

The nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and FOMC mentioned in the headline are the three events Bitcoin traders watch most closely in October. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, but the August PCE was already released on September 30. The next PCE, covering September data, would normally be released in late October or early November, so it is not a core catalyst for the first half of October.

The August PCE data itself is worth noting as background: core PCE rose 3.0% year over year, below the market expectation of 3.3%. Headline PCE rose 3.4% year over year, also below the expected 3.7%. After the release, Bitcoin briefly spiked to $85,000 but quickly pulled back to around $83,600. This shows that the market's reaction to "slightly lower-than-expected inflation" was short-lived. What really pressured the price was uncertainty around Treasury yields and the rate path.

What Alternative Signals to Watch When Data Is Missing

If you are used to trading on a "data release, price reaction" rhythm, you need to adjust your approach in October. During the official statistics shutdown, several alternative observation points are more useful than usual:

Weekly initial jobless claims. This data is released by the Labor Department, but it is also affected during the shutdown. If it resumes publication, its weekly frequency is more timely than nonfarm payrolls and can serve as a reference for marginal changes in the labor market.

Fed official speeches. When data is missing, public remarks from officials carry more informational weight. New York Fed President Williams said in late September that there was "no need to rush into action," while Governor Barr left open the possibility of further rate hikes. Before the October FOMC, any speech is worth watching for changes in wording.

Treasury yields and the dollar. The direct reason Bitcoin spiked and then pulled back after the August PCE release was that the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded from 5.20% to 5.28%. Rate expectations ultimately transmit to Bitcoin through the bond market, and changes in yields themselves are a real-time signal.

One Important Premise to Keep in Mind

The above judgments about the data shutdown are based on the fact that a partial federal government shutdown began on October 1, 2026. If Congress passes an appropriations bill within October and the government reopens, the BLS may resume releasing some delayed data. In that case, specific dates should be confirmed by checking the BLS website for updates.

But as long as the shutdown continues, October will be a month in which the supply of official macro data shrinks dramatically for Bitcoin traders. The only thing that is certain is the FOMC meeting date. For other events, "what to watch" may turn into "nothing to watch at all." In this environment, price reactions to any scattered information will be more violent than during data-dense periods, and position management matters more than predicting direction.

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