How Much Have Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sold? Decoding the On-Chain Signals
By early July 2026, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) have shifted from sustained distribution back to net accumulation. The 30-day net position change has turned positive, with current net accumulation estimated between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC. At the same time, however, the share of LTH realized losses has surged from 15% in February to 43%, with daily average loss peaks reaching 280 million USD — the highest since December 2022. These two data points seem contradictory — the same cohort selling at a loss while also buying — yet they actually form the market's most important current signal.
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Step 1: Understand The Data Definitions — What These Figures Actually Refer To
What to do: Before using any on-chain data, confirm the statistical definition to avoid misinterpretation.
Definition of long-term holders: Glassnode defines wallets holding coins for more than 155 days as long-term holders (LTH).
Two core metrics:
30-day net position change: Measures the 30-day net change in LTH addresses' holdings. This metric has turned positive, signaling that LTH overall have shifted from "primarily selling" to "primarily buying." The current accumulation scale of roughly 50,000-100,000 BTC is well below the peaks of nearly 400,000 BTC seen during the bull markets in November 2024 and May 2025.
Realized loss share: Tracks the proportion of losses realized by LTH selling. This metric has climbed from 15% in February to 43%, with daily average loss peaks reaching 280 million USD per day. This means that for every 100 USD of losses taken, 43 USD comes from long-term holders — addresses that have held for nearly six months are selling at a loss.
When is this step complete: When you can clearly distinguish between "net position" (LTH overall are buying) and "loss selling" (LTH are also selling) at two different data levels.
Step 2: See What Is Happening — The Essence of LTH's Contradictory Behavior
What to do: Understand what "selling and buying at the same time" really means.
Interpreting the current data:
LTH loss selling is taking place on a large scale. Glassnode points out that the share of LTH realized losses has jumped from 15% in early February to 43% in early July — the most tenacious, conviction-driven investors of this cycle are capitulating. Every rebound back above 64,000 USD faces a fresh wave of selling from these loss-holding participants.
At the same time, LTH net position has turned positive — meaning someone is absorbing this sell-side pressure through new buying. Glassnode's accumulation trend score shows that cohorts holding less than 1 BTC and between 100-1,000 BTC have the highest accumulation scores (around 0.8-0.9), and the 1,000-10,000 BTC cohort has also turned into net buyers (around 0.5-0.6). However, the largest whales (holding over 10,000 BTC) remain near neutral (around 0.4-0.5) and have not yet clearly participated in accumulation.
When is this step complete: When you grasp that the market is currently in a "old money selling, new/medium money buying" phase of handover, not a one-way sell-off.
Step 3: See How Far From The Bottom — What Conditions Confirm It
What to do: Use LTH-related metrics to judge where we are in the bottoming process.
Glassnode defines the current market as "in the early-to-mid stages of the bottom process" and provides clear confirmation conditions:
| Confirmation Condition | Current Status | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| LTH realized losses cool down | ❌ Daily peak of 280 million USD has not yet declined materially | Historically, bottoms appear after loss-selling exhaustion, not at the beginning |
| ETF flows turn consistently positive | ⚠️ Improved from peak outflows of 193 million USD/day to 89 million USD/day, but still net outflow | Slowing outflows are a positive signal, but flows have not yet turned positive |
| Price reclaims True Market Mean (~76,600 USD) | ❌ Currently at 62,800 USD, roughly 18% below this level | Reclaiming this level is a key threshold for a structural turnaround |
All three conditions remain unmet. Glassnode explicitly states: "It is still too early to assert that a full accumulation regime has begun; participation from the largest holders is needed for the trend to become truly self-reinforcing."
When is this step complete: When you can confirm we are in the early-to-mid stages of the bottom process, not that the bottom has been confirmed.
Common Misconceptions and Risk Reminders
Misconception: "LTH Selling at a Loss = Imminent Crash"
Historically, large-scale LTH loss selling is often part of the bottoming process. In the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, final capitulation occurred weeks before the price trough, and the low formed after selling exhaustion.
Misconception: "LTH Starting to Buy = Bottom Confirmed"
The current LTH accumulation scale is only 50,000-100,000 BTC, far below the nearly 400,000 BTC levels seen during prior bull cycles. Moreover, the largest whales have not yet entered, a key signal that the trend has not become self-reinforcing.
Downside risk: Glassnode notes that even if the current bottom assessment is valid, a test of 53,000 USD (realized price) cannot be ruled out. Some institutions like Stifel Financial have even issued a 38,000 USD target.
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Confirmation Signals and Next Steps to Watch
Bitcoin is currently in the early-to-mid stages of the bottom process. The fact that LTH have flipped to net accumulation is a positive signal, but loss selling has not yet cooled, ETF flows have not turned positive, and price has not reclaimed key cost-basis levels (72,200 USD short-term holder cost basis and 76,600 USD True Market Mean) — until these three conditions are met simultaneously, the probability of a confirmed bottom remains low.
It is recommended to closely track whether the LTH realized loss metric continues to decline, whether ETF net outflows flip to net inflows, and whether price can firmly hold above 72,000 USD. Until these signals appear, maintain position discipline and avoid aggressive betting.
