How to Use On-Chain Data to Tell If the Bitcoin Bull Market Is Over
The bottom line: No single on-chain metric can give a definitive answer. You need to cross-verify multiple signals. The MVRV Z-Score, changes in long-term holder supply, and miner behavior are the three most critical dimensions — only when they flash red together do you have a reliable signal that the bull market is over.
Step 1: Check the MVRV Z-Score — Is the Market Overheated?
The MVRV Z-Score is the core indicator for judging whether Bitcoin's valuation has deviated from its historical mean. It measures how far the current market cap is from the average cost basis of all holders (realized value).
How to read it:
- Open Glassnode or CryptoQuant and pull up the MVRV Z-Score chart.
- See which zone the current value falls into.
What each zone means:
| Z-Score range | Meaning | Historical reference |
|---|---|---|
| Below 0 | Severely undervalued, market bottom zone | Bottoms in 2015, 2019, 2022 |
| 0–3 | Fair value zone | Mid-bull market |
| 3–5 | Slightly overvalued | Cross-check with other indicators |
| 7–10 | Extremely overvalued, historically aligns with bull market tops | Tops in 2013, 2017, 2021 |
When you're done with this step: Record the current Z-Score and determine whether it sits in the "fair value" or "overheated" zone. Currently (mid-2026), the MVRV Z-Score is around 0.9–1, which puts it in a relatively mild position — nowhere near historical top levels.
Step 2: Track Long-Term Holder Supply Movements
The supply share held by the "1–3 year holder" cohort is one of the most precise indicators for calling a bull market top.
The logic:
- Bull market top: The 1–3 year holder supply share hits a bottom — meaning diamond hands have distributed their coins to new entrants.
- Bear market bottom: The 1–3 year holder supply share peaks — diamond hands accumulated the most coins at low prices.
How to read it:
- On Glassnode, find the "Long-Term Holder Supply" or "1–3 Year Holder Supply" chart.
- Observe whether the share is trending up or down.
- If the share has fallen to extremely low levels and begins to flatten, distribution is nearing its end — this is usually a top signal.
When you're done: Judge where the 1–3 year holder share currently sits in the cycle — is it still declining, or has it started to stabilize and recover?
Step 3: Examine Miner Behavior — The Most Sensitive Leading Signal
Miners face the most pressure in the ecosystem. Their behavior often acts as a leading indicator.
Three key things to watch:
① Puell Multiple: Measures the profitability of miners' daily newly issued BTC revenue. It currently sits around 0.74. When the Puell Multiple breaks above 4.0, miner revenue is far above the historical average, often corresponding to a market top.
② Hashrate changes: Bitcoin's total network hashrate has fallen over 25% since October 2025, making this one of the longer sustained drawdowns in history. A persistent drop in hashrate that diverges from price signals miner stress.
③ Miner reserve outflows: Large BTC transfers from miner wallets to exchanges are a bearish signal.
When you're done: Check the current Puell Multiple and combine it with the hashrate trend to assess whether miners are in a "stress zone."
Step 4: Combine the Signals — Only Confluence Tells the Real Story
Any single indicator can give a false alarm. A reliable bull-market-ending signal forms only when the following conditions are met simultaneously:
| Signal type | Threshold (historical reference) |
|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | 7–8 |
| NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) | 0.75 ("Euphoria" zone) |
| Puell Multiple | 4.0 |
| aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) | Surges sharply after staying above 1 |
| Long-term holder share | At historical lows and beginning to flatten |
When you're done: Cross-reference with the table — at least three of these indicators should be flashing. If only one or two have triggered, it's more likely a short-term correction rather than the end of the cycle.
Common Misconceptions
"Price drops mean a bear market": Mid-bull market corrections of 20–30% are normal. Always combine price action with on-chain signals — don't rely on candlestick charts alone.
"When everybody is bullish, it's the top": Sentiment indicators (like the Fear and Greed Index) have some reference value, but they aren't as robust as on-chain data. The MVRV Z-Score and NUPL are the hard metrics for judging whether euphoria is overdone.
"Rigidly follow the four-year cycle": The Bitcoin market is maturing. The double-top structure in 2021 already broke the simplistic four-year cycle narrative. Long-term holder behavior is shifting, so you can't blindly copy past patterns.
Risk Reminders
On-chain data is lagging — the signal you see may reflect conditions from hours or even days ago.
After institutions entered via ETFs, market structure has changed; the historical validity of signals needs to be recalibrated.
"Bull market over" does not mean "it crashes tomorrow." The top is a zone, and it can last for months.
Next step: Open Glassnode or CryptoQuant and check the MVRV Z-Score, long-term holder share, and Puell Multiple in order. Look at each piece of data individually, then cross-compare. If all three still sit in historically moderate territory, chances are higher that the bull market isn't over yet. Checking once a week is more effective than scrambling only during dips.
