How to Use On-Chain Data to Determine Whether an Altcoin Has Completed Its Main Uptrend
The core of judging whether an altcoin's main uptrend is over lies in watching three types of on-chain signals: whether chips have been distributed from market makers to retail hands, whether funding rates indicate overcrowded longs, and whether holder growth is keeping up with price gains. When the signal "holder count surges but the price no longer rises" appears, the main uptrend has most likely already finished.
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Step 1: Watch Changes in Chip Concentration – Maker Distribution Is the Root Cause of the Uptrend Ending
An altcoin's main uptrend is essentially a process of market makers pumping and then offloading. The key is judging whether the maker is still in the "pumping" phase or has entered the "distribution" phase.
How to do it:
Open Etherscan or Solscan and find the "Holders" page for the target token's contract.
Check the top 10 holding percentage – if it exceeds 70%, chips are highly concentrated and the maker has strong control.
Compare the distribution data with that from a week or a month ago.
Judgment criteria:
| Phase | Price behavior | Holder count change | Chip distribution characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pumping phase | Price rises 30%, holder count only rises 5% | Chips haven't been dispersed; a few are playing by themselves | Top 10 percentage stays high |
| Distribution phase (danger signal) | Price consolidates or even dips slightly, but holder count rises 20% | Makers are slowly offloading to retail at high levels; it looks like "the community is growing," but it's actually makers exiting | Top 10 percentage begins to decline |
| Already exited phase | Price drops, but holder count does not decrease | Retail is trapped; the maker has finished selling | Top 10 percentage has already dropped significantly |
What accomplishment looks like: You can identify whether the target altcoin is currently in the "pumping," "distribution," or "exited" phase, instead of just staring at the price candlestick chart.
Step 2: Track Funding Rates – Crowded Longs Are a Top Signal
Altcoin main uptrends are often accompanied by high leverage. When funding rates stay persistently positive and extremely high, it signals that longs are severely overcrowded. Once the market reverses, cascading liquidations will accelerate the decline.
How to do it:
Search for the target token's "Funding Rate" on Coinglass.
Check the 24-hour and 7-day average rates and compare them to historical levels.
Judgment criteria:
Funding rate consistently above 0.05%–0.1% for multiple days: longs are too crowded, increasing the risk of a top.
Funding rate suddenly flips from positive to negative: market sentiment reverses and longs are forced to liquidate.
If the funding rate is extremely high, it often corresponds to a stage top in price – this is one of the most direct signals of an overheated market.
What accomplishment looks like: You can state the target token's current funding rate level and judge whether it is in the "normal," "elevated," or "extreme" range.
Step 3: Verify the Divergence Between Holder Growth and Price – The Most Reliable Top Signal
When the price is no longer rising (consolidating or falling) but the holder count is still increasing rapidly, it means chips are being distributed from makers to retail – a classic hallmark of the "distribution phase" and one of the most reliable signals that the main uptrend is over.
How to do it:
Check the historical "Holders Count" changes for the target token on Etherscan/Solscan.
Overlay the holder growth curve with the price candlestick chart and compare them.
Judgment criteria:
Healthy signal: holder count and price rise in sync.
Warning signal: holder count grows rapidly (e.g., 20%+ in a week) but price consolidates or falls.
Danger signal: holder count continues to grow while the price breaks down and declines.
This signal is reliable because it directly reflects a shift in the supply-demand dynamic – makers are offloading large amounts of chips to retail.
What accomplishment looks like: You can plot the target token's "holder count change" against "price change" and determine whether the two are diverging.
Step 4: Check the Altcoin Season Index and BTC Dominance – Whether Overall Market Liquidity Is Still Present
A single altcoin's main uptrend cannot survive without broad market liquidity. If Bitcoin dominance is still rising and the Altcoin Season Index remains low, it means capital has not spilled over into altcoin markets.
How to do it:
Check Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D): if it is still above 58% and continuously rising, market capital is still concentrated in BTC, and altcoins lack incremental funding support.
Check the Altcoin Season Index: currently around 28.6, far below the 75 confirmation threshold, meaning only about a quarter of leading altcoins are outperforming BTC.
Judgment criteria:
BTC.D keeps rising + Altcoin Season Index below 50: the altcoin market is still in a "Bitcoin-dominated" phase, and overall liquidity does not support the continuation of a broad main uptrend.
BTC.D starts falling + Altcoin Season Index breaks above 50: capital begins to overflow into altcoins, potentially the start of a new main uptrend wave.
What accomplishment looks like: You can judge whether the current market is in a "BTC-dominated" or "capital spillover" phase, and use that to infer whether the target altcoin is in a favorable macro window.
Common Misconceptions
"A sharp price drop means the main uptrend is over": 20-30% violent corrections are normal in a bull market. The key is whether chips are being distributed and whether holders are still increasing – if chips remain highly concentrated, the pullback may just be a shakeout, not a top.
"Just checking the top 10 percentage is not enough": Makers can distribute coins across 50 wallets, each holding only 1%, making the top 10 look "healthy." You need to use a bubble map tool to merge addresses with direct transfer relationships when calculating concentration.
"All altcoins top out together": The altcoin market is fragmenting. In the first half of 2026, the altcoin total market cap dropped 23% to $666 billion, with capital concentrating in a few cash-flow-generating projects. Do not lump all altcoins together.
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Risk Reminder
On-chain data has a lag – the "holder count growth" you see may reflect a state from hours or even days ago, and should not be used as a precise short-term entry or exit signal.
High chip concentration is a prerequisite for an altcoin pump, but concentration does not mean the maker will not dump – high concentration also means the maker can reverse and offload at any time.
Next step: Pick an altcoin you hold. First, check the holder distribution on Etherscan/Solscan and compare the top-10 percentage change from a week ago. Then look up the funding rate on Coinglass. Finally, check whether the holder count is still growing rapidly while the price has stalled. After cross-verifying these three dimensions, decide whether to hold or sell.
