How to Develop a Complete Trading Plan Before and After a TGE (Token Generation Event)
If you want to profit from trading around a Token Generation Event (TGE), the first step is not to look at the price chart, but to check theunlock calendar. An unavoidable fact: in 2025, 84.7% of tokens traded below their issuance valuation after TGE, and more than half dropped over 50%. This means the core of your trading plan around a TGE should bedefense—first assess the selling pressure, then decide how to enter.
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Preparation: Understand the "Cost Basis" of Tokens
Before a TGE, different groups have vastly different token costs. This determines their willingness to sell.
| Group | Typical Cost | Behavioral Tendency After TGE |
|---|---|---|
| Early VC / Private Sale | Very low (e.g., $0.02) | Even at an opening price of $0.10, they have 5x profit;strongest selling pressure. |
| Project Team / Advisors | $0 or symbolic cost | Usually subject to lock-up, but once unlocked, selling pressure is high. |
| Launchpad Participants | Public subscription price (e.g., $0.025) | If the token doubles after opening, there is strong profit-taking motivation. |
| Secondary Market Retail | Market price after opening | Highest cost; they are the ones who may end up "holding the bag." |
Once you understand the cost structure, the logic of your trading plan becomes clear: your counterparty's cost may be 90% lower than yours.
Before TGE: Pre-TGE Phase (If Applicable)
Some projects have "pre-sale" or "Pre-TGE" events before the official TGE. This phase is characterized byextreme volatility and very low liquidity. Reports show that token volatility before TGE can be 20 times higher than after issuance.
Strategy: If you can participate in early subscription through channels like Launchpad, and there is no lock-up restriction, this may be the lowest-risk entry. After the subscription is complete,aim to sell immediately after the TGE openingto lock in the spread.
Risk: Tokens in the Pre-TGE phase often have lock-up periods and cannot be traded immediately. You must confirm the lock-up terms before participating, otherwise you may be trapped for months.
On TGE Day: The First 48 Hours After Opening
This is the most dangerous period. Data shows that for most high-hype projects, the price peaks within 48 hours after TGE.
Operational Framework:
First Goal: Liquidity and Price Discovery. In the first few hours after opening, price swings are violent and bid-ask spreads are wide. The main task here is not to "buy the dip," but to observe.
Determine if It's Worth Trading: Check theliquidity pool depth. If the pool is very small, a few tens of thousands of dollars can swing the price dramatically. Such projects are not suitable for large positions.
Participation Rules:
If you are a lottery winner for the new token: Sell in batches after the opening as planned. Do not get attached; for most new coins, "peak at opening" is the norm.
If you are a secondary market buyer:Do not chase the price in the first few hours after opening. This is when the price is most easily manipulated. At least wait for the first wave of selling to pass (usually 1–4 hours) and observe where the price stabilizes.
After TGE: Focus on the Vesting Calendar
Price action after TGE is almost entirely driven by thetoken unlock schedule.
Key Monitoring: The project's published "Vesting Schedule." Which addresses, at what time, unlock how many tokens?
Rules:
If a large number of tokens unlock immediately after TGE(e.g., 25% released at once): There will be massive selling pressure, and the price is likely to go down.
If the token uses a "cliff + linear release" structure: There may be a "pump and dump" rally before the cliff ends, followed by a drop around the unlock date.
Create Your Trading Checklist
Before participating in any TGE project, confirm the following information in order:
Tokenomics: What is the initial circulating supply? How many tokens unlock on TGE day? What are the lock-up periods for the team and VCs?
Initial Valuation (FDV): Is the fully diluted valuation too high? Compare with similar projects; if it is significantly higher, there is more room for downside.
Trading Platform: Is it first listed on a DEX or CEX? What is the liquidity like?
Market Environment: Is the current market liquidity abundant? When liquidity dried up in April–May 2024, even quality projects performed poorly after TGE.
Result Check: Before you press the "buy" button, ask yourself:If this token drops 50% in the next week, what is my plan?If you don't have an answer, your trading plan is not complete.
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FAQ
Q: What is a "good TGE" and a "bad TGE"?A: This does not refer to the project's quality, but to market performance. A "strong TGE" usually has extremely high hype and attention, but the price often peaks at the opening and then falls. A "weak TGE" is launched quietly, but if the project has real users and revenue, the price can actually rise steadily.
Q: How can I tell if a project has "real usage" before TGE?A: Check if the project has a usable product, on-chain active address count, transaction volume, or total value locked (TVL). If the project only has a whitepaper and roadmap, and no usable product at the time of TGE, the risk is very high.
Q: Can I buy after the price drops 90% post-TGE?A: It depends on the project's fundamentals. If the project is still developing and user growth continues, the crash may offer a value opportunity. If the project team has stopped updating and the community is silent, the drop may be the start of a zero. In 2025, 38.1% of tokens experienced a decline of 70%–90%.
