Not necessarily, and "probably not." When the Max Pain price is close to the spot price, there is indeed a "pull" in the market that tries to drag the price toward it, but this force is far from being able to override news, capital flows, and spot liquidity.
The source of this pull is simple. On options expiry day, the strike price where option buyers suffer the largest total loss and sellers (market makers/writers) enjoy the largest total profit is the Max Pain. Market makers have an incentive to push the price toward that level through hedging, so the options they sold expire worthless. However, if a positive gamma environment does not exist, or if the spot market has very strong opposing forces, this "anchor" cannot hold the price.
Step 1: Calculate or Find Today's Max Pain Level
Pinpoint the day's Max Pain anchor. Open an options data page on CoinGlass, Deribit, or SpotGamma, filter for contracts expiring today, and find the system-calculated Max Pain price. CoinGlass's algorithm: sum up the total dollar value of all in-the-money options at each strike price—the strike with the highest total value is the Max Pain. You will get a specific price number, like $88,000.
Step 2: Compare Current Spot Price with the Max Pain Distance
Confirm your position's relationship to this level. If the spot price is very close to Max Pain (e.g., within 0.5%), you will feel the price's "stickiness."
Situation A: The price oscillates near Max Pain and the market is in a positive gamma environment—the price is easily sucked in and trades in a narrow range. The market makers' "buy low, sell high" hedging behavior reinforces this pull.
Situation B: The price is far from Max Pain, or the market is in a negative gamma environment—this pull basically fails. In a negative gamma zone, market makers' "buy high, sell low" behavior (chasing trends) overrides any Max Pain effect.
Risk Warning
Max Pain is a static snapshot, while open interest (OI) and market makers' gamma exposure change in real time. The Max Pain you see at 10 a.m. may have already moved by 3 p.m. due to large new positions or closing trades. According to market observation, during a roughly $10 billion quarterly expiration in June 2026, the Max Pain was around $72,000, but the BTC spot price dropped to near $61,700 before expiry. At settlement, the price did not return to Max Pain, and the Max Pain theory failed to play out in this expiry.
Common Reasons for Failure
Many people see "Max Pain = $72,000, spot at $61,700" and think "it will be pulled back before expiry, let's buy the dip." But they overlook that the market makers' gamma exposure might be negative at that point, and the price is below the Gamma Flip level. The market makers' hedging will not drag the price toward Max Pain; instead, it may accelerate the decline. Max Pain is just a statistical derivation based on open interest distribution, not a settlement target price.
Next Steps
If you plan to use Max Pain as a reference, don't just look at the price distance. Open the platform's GEX (Gamma Exposure) tool to confirm whether the market is in a positive or negative gamma environment. If it is positive gamma and spot is near Max Pain, consider range-bound strategies around that level; if it is a negative gamma environment, ignore Max Pain completely and follow trend strategies instead. Refresh Max Pain and GEX data every hour until contract settlement. 30 minutes after settlement, check the deviation between the actual closing price and Max Pain—if the deviation exceeds 1%, it means that period's liquidity completely overwhelmed the pull from option positioning.
