Stablecoin card user growth is indeed rapid — monthly spending volume has surged 500% since last September, reaching about $600 million per month. But money doesn't spend itself; growth is typically driven by two forces: genuine demand and heavy subsidies.
Currently, the pull from cashback rewards is more evident in the growth signals, but payment demand is gradually taking over.
Step 1: How Many Users Can Cashback Attract?
This is the most direct short-term driver. If the cashback is generous enough, users are willing to move money from their wallets onto the card.
How to do it: Compare cashback rates and growth data across different stablecoin cards to see if higher cashback correlates with higher growth. Success criterion: Confirm the link between cashback policies and user activity.
Jupiter's Visa card offers 4% to 10% cashback, and its April monthly transaction volume grew 660%. OKX's card also provides up to 10% cashback, credited instantly in USDG. The Pudgy Penguins NFT project launched the Pengu Card with cashback as high as 12%. These numbers far exceed the traditional credit card cashback level of 1%-2%.
But cashback is not unlimited. OKX's cashback currently only applies to transactions paid in USDG, not USDC spending, and entertainment, gambling, and other specific merchant categories are excluded. Cashback is a phased promotional tool, not a permanent benefit.
Risk reminder: Don't mistake cashback for the stablecoin card's "long-term value." These subsidies are usually time-limited, and when adjustments happen, the platform may only issue an inconspicuous notice without proactively informing you. If you opened the card primarily for cashback, regularly check the cashback rules in the app to see if there have been any changes.
Step 2: Is There Genuine Growth in Payment Demand?
Attracting users with subsidies is only the first step; whether they stick around is the real question.
How to do it: Examine spending scenarios and average transaction amounts to determine if it's "essential spending" rather than "spending just for cashback." Success criterion: Confirm whether stablecoin cards are entering everyday high-frequency use cases.
A clear signal is visible in the data: the average transaction amount for stablecoin cards has dropped below $100. This amount corresponds not to speculative large transactions, but to daily spending like subscriptions, online shopping, travel, and groceries. This suggests cardholders are not just "swiping for cashback" but are genuinely using the card for everyday payment needs.
Step 3: Determining the Weight of the Two Forces — Which One Dominates?
Both forces are at play, but they operate at different stages.
Scenario A: New User Acquisition Phase (Cashback Dominant)
High cashback is a lever for rapid user acquisition. Jupiter's 660% monthly growth, and the entry of OKX and Pudgy Penguins, all leveraged cashback to push stablecoin cards from a "niche tool" to a "cost-effective option."
Scenario B: Long-Term Retention Phase (Payment Demand Dominant)
Visa's stablecoin card program now covers over 40 countries and more than 130 card programs, up from around 90 last year. Western Union also officially entered the space in August with Stablecard, aiming to allow direct spending of cross-border remittances upon arrival instead of being stuck in a bank account. The entry of these major players shows that cashback is just a door opener; the real market opportunity lies in turning stablecoin cards into "everyday spending infrastructure."
Common pitfall: Seeing user growth and assuming "payment demand explosion," overlooking the weight of cashback subsidies in the current growth. If cashback were drastically reduced one day, the current monthly active user numbers might plummet directly. For ordinary users, if you were attracted to open a card during a cashback period, it's best to evaluate before any adjustment whether the card is still worth using without cashback — exchange rate costs, ease of use, and fund flexibility are the true long-term values.
Verification method: Open your stablecoin card app and check the current cashback rules and expiration date. Then calculate a daily expense you would actually pay with the card (such as a subscription or grocery shopping), compare the cost after cashback deduction with that of a traditional credit card or fiat payment, and determine whether there is a clear advantage. If the card has no competitiveness once cashback is removed, consider before the cashback period ends whether to keep holding it.
