Miners haven't sold, but the BTC in their wallets has decreased—this situation can actually be seen on-chain. The most direct signal is: wallet balances are dropping, but there are no transfer records to exchanges.
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Step 1: Look at the "Miner Net Position" summary signal first
If you don't want to track specific addresses, you can use summary indicators from on-chain data platforms to make a judgment. Glassnode's "Miner Net Position Change" is currently the most direct observation window.
How to use it: To see whether miners as a group are accumulating or offloading coins, open Glassnode or CryptoQuant and find the "Miner Net Position Change" indicator. A negative value means miners overall are reducing holdings, while a positive value means they are increasing holdings.
Data from August 2026 shows that miner net positions have turned negative, with the selling pace comparable to the market low in 2022. But keep in mind that this "negative value" includes both direct coin selling and coins being used as collateral, so you still need to distinguish further.
Step 2: Tell "sold" apart from "pledged": look for evidence of collateralized borrowing
The core feature of collateralized borrowing is this: BTC leaves the miner's wallet, but it does not enter exchange or OTC selling paths. Instead, it goes to a lending platform's contract address or a custody wallet.
1. Check on-chain flows—identify the counterparty
How to use it: Trace outgoing records from miner addresses to see where the BTC went. You can enter the miner address in a block explorer such as Mempool.space and look at the receiving addresses of large outflows. If the receiving address is a lending platform contract address, a multi-signature custody wallet, or a known lending institution wallet, it is most likely collateral, not a sale.
A typical example from August 2026: MARA Holdings pledged 18,750 BTC, about 54% of its treasury, to borrow $750 million from Coinbase Credit and Two Prime at an interest rate of about 7.5%. On-chain, this operation looked like this: 18,750 BTC moved out of MARA's wallet and into Coinbase Credit's custody address—not to Binance or an OTC desk.
2. Check exchange inflow indicators—verify the sell signal
If you see a large outflow from a miner address, but exchange inflow indicators do not rise at the same time, then the funds were probably not sent to be sold.
How to use it: Cross-check with the "Miner to Exchange Flow" indicator. In CryptoQuant, overlay the "Miner Reserves" and "Exchange Inflow" charts. If miner reserves are falling but exchange inflows are not rising, it means the funds went elsewhere, such as collateral or custody.
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Step 3: Check financial disclosures—public information from listed mining companies
For listed mining companies, there is another more direct clue beyond on-chain data: the "pledged/collateral" disclosures in financial reports.
CleanSpark disclosed in its Q2 2026 report that of its 13,924 BTC holdings, 1,719 BTC were used as collateral for derivatives trading or as receivables, accounting for about 12% of its book BTC. This means its "available BTC" was 12% less than the book figure.
Riot Platforms' Q1 2026 disclosure was even more striking: at quarter-end it held 15,680 BTC, of which 5,802 BTC were restricted, accounting for about 37%.
How to use it: Check the "collateral disclosure" section in the quarterly reports or operational updates of listed mining companies. Search the company's SEC filings or quarterly update announcements, find the notes to the balance sheet explaining BTC pledges or restrictions, and confirm the exact numbers and percentages for "Collateralized BTC," "Restricted BTC," or "Pledged BTC."
Risk reminder: Using BTC as collateral is not free. Taking MARA as an example, a 7.5% annual interest rate means paying about $56.7 million in interest per year. If the coin price drops by more than about 40%, the collateral buffer would be wiped out, creating the risk of margin calls or even liquidation.
How to verify after completing the operation: Open the miner address you are watching and check large outflow records over the past 30 days. If the outflow destination is not an exchange hot wallet address such as Binance or OKX, but an unfamiliar contract address or multi-signature wallet, then it is most likely collateral, not coin selling. Combined with Glassnode's "Miner Net Position" and "Exchange Inflow" charts, you can assess the overall behavioral logic of miners.
