Blob usage is going up, but fees aren't following. That's because blob capacity is still far from being full. Right now, the target is 6 blobs per block, but the actual use is only 1.66 blobs—over 70% of the space is unused. The price hasn't gone up not because demand is lacking, but because demand isn't high enough to cause network congestion.
Step 1: Look at the blob capacity target, not the absolute maximum
What to do: Understand that blob pricing logic depends on the "target capacity," not the "maximum capacity."
How to do it: The pricing formula from EIP-4844 is: fees only start rising when the average number of blobs per block exceeds the target (6). The target is 6, and the maximum is 9. As long as the average usage stays below 6 blobs per block, there's no congestion, and fees will remain low.
Data from July 2025 shows that Ethereum blob usage has grown to over 30,000 blobs per day, but the average per block is only 1.66—far below the 6 target. The capacity simply isn't full, so fees are not going up.
Completion standard: You can tell the difference between "blob usage increasing" and "blob capacity being filled"—the former doesn't automatically cause the latter.
Step 2: Check current actual usage and see how much is left
What to do: Use on-chain data to confirm the current blob utilization rate.
How to do it: Visit the Dune Analytics blob dashboard (search for "Blob usage" or "EIP-4844") and check the following metrics:
Daily blob count: In July 2025, it exceeded 30,000 per day, roughly 8x growth since the start of the year.
Average blobs per block: About 1.66.
Gap to the target (6 per block): Currently only about 27.7% of the target.
To raise the average from 1.66 to 6 blobs per block, L2 transaction volume would need to grow by about 3.6 times.
Common mistake: Many see "8x growth" and think the network is nearly congested. But the starting point was very low, so even after 8x growth, it's only about a quarter of the target.
Step 3: See how the Pectra upgrade will double capacity again
What to do: Know the future supply-side expansion direction and understand the structural reason why fees will stay low for a long time.
How to do it: The Pectra upgrade in the first half of 2026 will further increase blob capacity:
Current target capacity: 6 blobs per block.
After Pectra: Target capacity doubles to 9, maximum may reach 12.
If blob demand doesn't surge at the same pace, fees will be pushed even lower. The condition for fee increases isn't "usage is rising," but "usage is rising faster than capacity."
High risk: persistently low blob fees mean continued revenue pressure on the mainnet, and ETH may remain inflationary. If you hold ETH, the key variable to watch isn't "how much blob usage has grown," but "when the average blobs per block will approach the target." Until then, the EIP-4844 fee mechanism ensures no substantial fee increase.
Verification method: Go to Dune, search for a "Blob count per block" or "EIP-4844 usage" dashboard, and check the average utilization trend for the last 30 days. Also keep track of Pectra upgrade progress—once the target rises from 6 to 9, the threshold for fee increases will be even higher, and the supply-demand equilibrium will be pushed further into the future.
