No matter how fast DeFi points grow, you cannot precisely estimate the final airdrop value. You can only derive a reasonable range using a standard model. The project team will not announce the token price or allocation ratio before the TGE, so what you can do is not "calculate an exact number," but use the formula "FDV × airdrop ratio ÷ total points × your points" to bracket a range, then adjust that range based on market sentiment and project fundamentals.
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Step 1: Break Down the Core Formula for Airdrop Value
Airdrop value is determined by four variables. Every estimate revolves around them.
What to do: Understand the underlying formula for calculating airdrop value.
How to do it: Airdrop Value = FDV × Airdrop Ratio ÷ Total Network Points × Your Points. This formula is widely used in valuation tools and community discussions for many projects.
Completion criteria: You can list the meaning of these four variables — FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation), airdrop ratio (the percentage of tokens allocated to the community), total network points, and your points.
Step 2: Estimate FDV — Find Comparable Projects as References
FDV is the biggest uncertainty and the main source of estimation error.
What to do: Find leading projects in the same sector that already have tokens, and use their FDVs as anchors.
How to do it:
Find similar projects: If the points project is a Perp DEX, use Hyperliquid, dYdX, etc., as benchmarks; if it is a DeFi lending protocol, look at Aave, Compound.
Check funding valuations: If the project has public funding records (e.g., Kaito's Series A valuation of $87.5 million), the market usually expects an FDV of 5-10 times that amount.
Use conservative ranges: Without clear references, DEX-type projects can be estimated within an FDV range of $500 million - $2 billion.
Completion criteria: Provide a low-estimate and a high-estimate FDV value.
Risk reminder: FDV is not the same as market cap. After a token launches, the actual circulating supply is much smaller than the total supply. The initial price may be hyped up, or it may fall quickly due to unlock selling pressure. Using FDV to estimate airdrop value can only determine the "theoretical maximum," not the actual sell price.
Step 3: Estimate Airdrop Ratio and Your Point Share — Follow Official Updates
These two variables may be adjusted at any time before the TGE and require continuous tracking.
What to do: Check the project's whitepaper or official announcements to confirm the airdrop ratio, and estimate your share of the total network points.
How to do it:
Airdrop ratio: Usually 5%-30% of the total supply. Kaito is expected to be around 33.3%, Genius around 21% across three seasons, while Hyperliquid allocated most of its tokens to the community. When no public data is available, take 10%-15% as the default range.
Your share: Share = Your Points ÷ Total Network Points. Total network points need to be estimated through community statistics or on-chain data, and this part has a large margin of error.
Completion criteria: Determine the reference range for the airdrop ratio and roughly estimate your share of points.
Common failure reason: Many people directly calculate their share using "current points ÷ total points" when points are growing fast, but they overlook that the project may continue issuing points, diluting their share. A better approach is to track the "weekly points growth rate" and "changes in participant numbers" and dynamically adjust your estimate.
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Step 4: Use the "Cost-Anchoring Method" for Floor Verification
Besides calculating theoretical value with the formula, you can also use the "cost of earning points" to back-calculate whether the airdrop value is reasonable.
What to do: Estimate how much capital and time you invested to earn these points.
How to do it: Taking trading-based projects as an example, the cost per point usually falls in the $10-$15 range. If you spent $500 in fees and earned 50 points, your cost is $10 per point. If the airdrop value is below this number, you are at a loss.
Completion criteria: Your estimated airdrop value must be ≥ your point‑acquisition cost for this participation to potentially yield a positive return.
Verification method after completing the steps: Plug your points into the formula and calculate a "pessimistic - neutral - optimistic" three-tier value. If the project fundamentals are strong, you can lean toward the optimistic range; if the project has technical issues or community doubts, lean toward the pessimistic range.
Next connecting action: After completing the estimate, don't stop at the "calculated number." Keep monitoring the project team's adjustments to points rules — when an official "snapshot time" or "airdrop ratio" is announced, recalculate immediately. After the token launch, check the release rules as soon as possible and choose a claiming method that matches your holding period to avoid asset loss due to improper operation.
