Bitcoin UTXO Age Distribution: Are Long-Term Holders Moving?
Based on recent on-chain data:Long-term holders are not only refraining from panic selling but are also significantly slowing down their sell-off pace and even starting to accumulate again.The supply share controlled by this group has hit an all-time high, while short-term holders are bearing the brunt of the current market pressure.
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📊 Step 1: Core Data – Behavioral Changes of Long-Term Holders
To determine whether long-term holders are 'moving,' the key is to look at two on-chain indicators:
1. 'OG' Holders (holding over 5 years) sell volume drops to 19-month low
According to CryptoQuant data, the 90-day average sell volume of 'OG' Bitcoin holders (holding over 5 years) has dropped to962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. In previous bull cycles, this group's sell volume peaked several times, such as the 90-day average of3,860 BTCin May 2024 and3,200 BTCin February 2025.
2. Broader long-term holders (holding over 155 days) control a record supply
As of June 2026, long-term holders (LTH, typically addresses holding coins for over 155 days) control79%of Bitcoin's circulating supply, an all-time high. K33 Research data also shows that only about218,421 BTCheld for over two years have been reactivated so far in 2026, nearly a historic low, compared to1.18 million BTCin the same period of 2024.
🔍 Step 2: Data Interpretation – Behavioral Divergence Between Long and Short-Term Holders
Current data clearly shows two distinct behavioral patterns:
Long-term holders (LTH) tend to 'hold and not move': Glassnode's on-chain analysis shows that thenet position change of Bitcoin supply held for over six months has turned positive again in 2026. This means they are holding more coins than they are selling, signaling a shift back to accumulation after the massive distribution in 2024-2025. Analyst Darkfost also notes that the current cost basis for OG holders is around$63,200, close to the current market price. Their decision not to sell indicates a reduced willingness to sell.
Short-term holders (STH) bear most of the pressure: Unlike the 'calm' long-term holders, short-term holders (STH) are facing significant stress. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. points out that the realized capital of short-term holders has shrunk by-56%, while long-term holders show almost no drawdown. This suggests that the current market sell-off is mainly driven by 'weak hands,' not steadfast long-term holders.
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⏳ Step 3: Historical Patterns – Current Signals and Market Bottom Correlation
Some analysts believe that current on-chain data shares similarities with historical market bottom characteristics.
A widely discussed indicator is the proportion of Bitcoin in the '1 week to 1 month' UTXO age band within realized capitalization. Currently, this ratio has dropped to4.62%. Historically, this level has appeared around thebear market bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022.
Furthermore, analysts note that the 2026 market cycle differs from the past. In the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, long-term holder supply share showed significant compression (massive selling) after price peaks. However, in the 2025-2026 cycle, even as prices fell from highs, the long-term holder supply sharedid not show the same contraction, indicating that structural selling pressure is lower than in previous cycles.
Conclusion: Overall, despite Bitcoin's price retreat from all-time highs, the 'strong hand' long-term holder group is not leaving en masse but is instead slowing selling and turning to accumulation. This starkly contrasts with the plight of short-term holders and, from a historical perspective, signals that the market may be approaching a bottom zone.
