Points cost can hardly form a real price floor—at best, it is a psychological support level, not an actual bottom based on market consensus.
1. Real Case: Projects With High Points Cost See the Worst Losses
The case of Opinion is very direct. The prediction market platform saw its off-exchange points price hit $45 per point, with many users farming at costs above $20 per point. Some even spent $200,000 expecting big returns. But after the TGE, the reality was: 1 point only converted to about 15 OPN tokens. At the pre-market price of $0.54, 1 point was worth roughly $8. Those who farmed points at $20 per point found that a $1,000 investment yielded an airdrop worth only $405—a net loss of 60%. Someone who spent $200,000 ended up with just around $1,000 in airdrop value, a classic case of being farmed instead of farming.
Why didn't cost create a price floor? Because the sellers of airdrop tokens are not a rational group protecting a "cost floor." They are people who received free tokens and just want to cash out quickly.
2. No Anchoring Relationship Between Points "Cost" and Token "Market Price"
Points cost is only the money and effort you spent to qualify for an airdrop; it does not equal the token's real value. When the airdrop distribution rules change at TGE (for instance, only 3.5% of Opinion's airdrop unlocked on TGE day, far lower than earlier expectations), the conversion ratio of points to tokens gets diluted. Points farmed at $20 per point ended up converting to tokens worth only $8—instantly rendering the cost meaningless.
Looking at broader data, an analysis of 62 airdrops shows that 88% of tokens declined in price within months after the airdrop. Research by Milk Road also points out that 89% of airdropped tokens lost value within 90 days. The selling pressure from free tokens far outweighs any support from a supposed "cost floor."
3. True Price Floor Depends on Liquidity and Fundamental Value Discovery
The price floor of airdrop tokens is not determined by farming cost, but by two factors: ① whether the market can form a new value consensus after the initial wave of selling is absorbed; and ② whether the project's product, revenue, user retention, and other fundamentals justify the current valuation. In the case of Falcon Finance, token FF opened at $0.6 (implying a $60 billion FDV), while the pre-market price was only around $0.27. It quickly dropped from the open. This shows: without fundamentals backing a high valuation, even a very high points cost cannot hold the price up.
Practical Checks
Instead of treating points cost as a "floor," you can do the following:
- Calculate your points cost versus the current off-exchange price or valuations of similar projects to judge whether you are already in a loss zone;
- Pay attention to the airdrop unlock rules after TGE (Opinion unlocking only 3.5% caught many off guard);
- Within 24–48 hours after token listing, watch the selling pressure and market demand.
What to Do Next
If you still hold points, don't get trapped by a "cost anchoring" mentality. After TGE, if the opening price is already below your cost, the market will not buy just because your cost was high. The rational approach: watch liquidity and project fundamentals, not your "sunk cost." If the project's revenue and user data cannot support the valuation (for example, Opinion earned $17 million in fees but the total airdrop value was less than that), then the price will likely fall further.
